Analytics
“Germany to win the second half?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Ecuador vs. Germany - Second Half Result”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Jun 25, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 15 hourly price points from Jun 11, 2026 to Jun 25, 2026 (Yes between 41.0% and 49.0%); 61 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 96.5% of the loaded shares; 352 recent public fills from 120 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Ecuador and Germany, scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ecuador" if Ecuador score more goals than Germany in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Ecuador and Germany score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Germany" if Germany score more goals than Ecuador in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fifwc-ecu-ger-2026-06-25-second-half-result-away
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Forecastication2 | Yes | 19.33K |
| Mantronix | Yes | 9K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.6K |
| Healthy-Tactics | Yes | 1.1K |
| daytimeBAT1 | Yes | 952.34 |
| GC-P | Yes | 800.24 |
| NM-P | Yes | 559.79 |
| C0nflict | Yes | 486 |
| Javier777Milei | Yes | 400 |
| hkpgiraffe | Yes | 393.78 |