Analytics
“Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Ecuador vs. Germany - Second Half Result”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 25 Jun 2026. $8.93K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 15 daily price points from Jun 11, 2026 UTC to Jun 25, 2026 UTC (Yes between 32.0% and 49.5%); 24 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 96.2% of the loaded shares; 106 recent public fills from 50 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Ecuador and Germany, scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ecuador" if Ecuador score more goals than Germany in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Ecuador and Germany score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Germany" if Germany score more goals than Ecuador in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Resolution source: https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fifwc-ecu-ger-2026-06-25-second-half-result
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 15 points · 11 Jun 2026 – 25 Jun 2026 · axis zoomed to 25%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 44.0% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | 32.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Vigilant-Environment | Yes | 2.12K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.6K |
| cescreay | Yes |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 1.05K |
| ezq-gk-7 | Yes | 633.98 |
| holycharon | Yes | 397.36 |
| reghergh | Yes | 369.51 |
| EZpoly-TT-TXMeng01 | Yes | 276 |
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 112.97 |
| xelm | Yes | 70.28 |
| DrEldoradon | Yes | 68.97 |