Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.8%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 27 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 27 Jan 2026 to 31 Jan 2026, the highest close was 19.5% on 27 Jan 2026 and the lowest 2.2% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 2.2% on 31 Jan 2026. $33.36K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 27 Jan 2026 – 31 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2026 | 19.5% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 2.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KARACAC | Yes | 199.72 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 50 |
| S888 | Yes | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Federal Judge Kate Menendez is hearing arguments on January 26 in a case over the legality of the Trump Administration’s Operation Metro Surge, which sent around 3,000 additional immigration agents to the state of Minnesota (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-send-border-czar-homan-minnesota-2026-01-26/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a federal judge issues an order to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Order refers to a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or any other written order carrying legal force issued by a federal judge and entered on the court docket. An order will be considered to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge if it broadly commands the operation to cease its implementation for any period of time, or if it otherwise commands a reduction in the number of federal immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota. Federal immigration enforcement agents refers to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol personnel, and any other federal personnel operating in Minnesota for immigration enforcement under Operation Metro Surge. Orders which command a reduction in the number of immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota will count. Any order commanding a cap on the number of federal immigration agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota below the operational level in effect at the time the order is issued will count, including a return to baseline levels before Operation Metro Surge. An order which does not explicitly mention Operation Metro Surge may count, so long as it applies to agents engaged in that operation. Orders to limit the use of specific actions or tactics (e.g. tear-gas use, search of property without a warrant, etc.), without ordering a reduction/withdrawal/return-to-baseline/cap for federal immigration enforcement agents under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota, will not count. Any qualifying order issued within this market’s timeframe will count, regardless of if it is stayed pending appeal, or if it is otherwise not enforced. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| ccsdude | Yes | 25 |
| Roelanddo | Yes | 15.38 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 15 |
| Amarsb | Yes | 9.52 |
| GasTransFreaks | Yes | 5.26 |
| 88mnm88 | No | 0.01 |
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