Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 10 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 10 Jun 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 15.5% on 10 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 6% on 11 Jun 2025. $28.25K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 10 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2025 | 15.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 77.95 |
| Another47 | Yes | 66.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk has his U.S. government security clearance formally removed, suspended, downgraded, or otherwise revoked by an authorized United States government agency between June 9, and June 30, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Removal includes any official action resulting in Musk no longer holding an active security clearance of any level, including permanent or temporary revocation, suspension, or formal downgrade. If Musk voluntarily resigns his clearance or leaves a position resulting in automatic clearance invalidation, this will also qualify provided the loss of clearance is publicly documented. A downgrade to a lower clearance level will qualify if it constitutes a reduction in access formally recognized by a government agency. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musks-security-clearance-revoked-before-july
| Yes |
| 50 |
| Ogdemon | Yes | 48.48 |
| Blind-Coleslaw | Yes | 37.93 |
| Jpqc | Yes | 34.69 |
| JimBarnard | Yes | 28.57 |
| rndmwlkr | Yes | 20.41 |
| tixon | Yes | 7.69 |
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