
Resolved No on 21 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 89.5%. Yes opened at 26% on 18 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2026 to 21 Sep 2026, the highest close was 26% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 20 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 10.5% on 20 Sep 2026. $130.4K traded over the market's life.
74 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 22, 5:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 18 Sep 2026 – 21 Sep 2026, chart shows 5%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 26.0% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 10.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 50.82K |
| BigMackyG | Yes | 13.24K |
| rw-mehtape | Yes | 5.04K |
| ShivaLemire | Yes | 3K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 19 12:00 PM ET to September 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-21-2026
| YuzuLemon | Yes | 2.24K |
| Keen Atlas 7F72 | Yes | 2K |
| Etherapp | Yes | 1.68K |
| RickRockRick | Yes | 1.59K |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 1.19K |
| yangleduoduo | Yes | 1.1K |
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