Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 2.5 points from 14% when the market opened on 28 Oct 2026.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 16.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 30 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 11.5% on 30 Oct 2026.
320-339 is the favourite of the 30 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?”, ahead of 340-359 at 11%.
$6.19K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $20.41K since listing. The order book holds $4.89K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 215 trades, $1.4K bought Yes and $6.9K bought No; the largest was a $1.03K buy of No at 83.9¢.
The largest Yes position is ColinHuang with 3.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 15.1K. Ten wallets hold 76.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 6 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 6:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 28 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 8%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 14.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 15.06K |
| ColinHuang | Yes | 3.91K |
| TweetPulse.Live | Yes | 2.4K |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 30 12:00 PM ET to November 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-30-november-6-2026
18 more outcomes, none above 2.8%.
| blisni | No | 2.07K |
| sebyastiens | Yes | 1.5K |
| hirichzhou | Yes | 1.2K |
| Bitgod | No | 1.06K |
| Poiuztrewq | Yes | 1.05K |
| ComradeCat | Yes | 1K |
| amy888 | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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