
Resolved No on 17 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 13 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 17 Oct 2026, the highest close was 35% on 15 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 0.1% on 17 Oct 2026. $106.2K traded over the market's life.
66 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 18, 4:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 17 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 33.5% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 104.88K |
| KONGkingno1 | Yes | 20K |
| BigMackyG | Yes | 7.69K |
| Sugarina | Yes | 3K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 15 12:00 PM ET to October 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-15-october-17-2026
| LUOlitt | Yes | 2.2K |
| balthazar | Yes | 1.7K |
| RickRockRick | Yes | 1.36K |
| Timely-Crust | Yes | 1.09K |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 1.06K |
| Kkirito | Yes | 1.02K |
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