Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7% on 8 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2025 to 17 Oct 2025, the highest close was 7% on 8 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 16 Oct 2025. $141.8K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 18, 4:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 8 Oct 2025 – 17 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2025 | 7.0% |
| 17 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 182.15K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 3.59K |
| Ziigmund | Yes | 2.87K |
| mrsBitcoin | Yes | 2.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 10 12:00 PM ET to October 17, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-10-october-17
| Siziriv | Yes | 2.28K |
| ghghgghghghghhghghh888 | Yes | 1.5K |
| lissartter | Yes | 1.4K |
| moon-k58-lad | Yes | 863.3 |
| MauritsD | Yes | 662.5 |
| Ondra | Yes | 587 |
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