
Resolved No on 15 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 14 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 14 Jul 2026 to 15 Jul 2026, the highest close was 15.5% on 14 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 15 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 2.1% on 15 Jul 2026. $162.57K traded over the market's life.
80 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 16, 5:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 14 Jul 2026 – 15 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | 15.5% |
| 15 Jul 2026 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 34.82K |
| BigMackyG | Yes | 7.75K |
| Keen Atlas 7F72 | Yes | 5K |
| txp111. | Yes | 5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 13 12:00 PM ET to July 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-13-july-15
| RickRockRick | Yes | 2.32K |
| ShivaLemire | Yes | 2K |
| gordontradedc | Yes | 1.61K |
| broitsravi | Yes | 1.56K |
| Badekarret | Yes | 1.5K |
| tiwu99-2 | Yes | 1.05K |
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