
Resolved No on 2 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.6% on 25 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 25 Jan 2026 to 2 Feb 2026, the highest close was 4.6% on 29 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Feb 2026. $764.78K traded over the market's life.
171 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 3, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 25 Jan 2026 – 2 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | 1.6% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 409.79K |
| Emerald Oracle CE3F | Yes | 44.5K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 28.06K |
| Pardolihuel | Yes | 20K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 27 12:00 PM ET to February 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-january-27-february-3
| OuchMyBalls | Yes | 13.94K |
| Siziriv | Yes | 8.14K |
| rated | Yes | 7.18K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 6.6K |
| Bitgod | Yes | 5.5K |
| Elonus | Yes | 5K |
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