
Resolved No on 13 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 13% on 4 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 4 Feb 2026 to 13 Feb 2026, the highest close was 14.9% on 10 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.6% on 13 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 3.1% on 11 Feb 2026. $2.1M traded over the market's life.
402 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 14, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 4 Feb 2026 – 13 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | 13.0% |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 427.33K |
| 0x8712 | Yes | 100K |
| bobby467 | Yes | 70.8K |
| Warlike-Towtruck | Yes | 28.98K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 6 12:00 PM ET to February 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-february-6-february-13
| Ondra | Yes | 20.41K |
| OuchMyBalls | Yes | 19.64K |
| runzero | Yes | 19.61K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 18.56K |
| wastebrook | Yes | 11.85K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 10.86K |
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