Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 13% on 20 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2025 to 1 Apr 2025, the highest close was 13% on 20 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 4.5% on 21 Mar 2025. $3.61K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 4:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 20 Mar 2025 – 1 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2025 | 13.0% |
| 1 Apr 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GayPride | Yes | 20 |
| Burnmoneyuser | No | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes is arrested or otherwise ceases to be leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel at any point by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/el-mencho-out-as-leader-of-jalisco-new-generation-cartel
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