Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 87.5%. Yes opened at 35.5% on 14 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 51 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2026 to 3 Oct 2026, the highest close was 79.5% on 22 Aug 2026 and the lowest 9.1% on 27 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 44% on 27 Aug 2026. $464.3 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 14 Aug 2026 – 3 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | 35.5% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 12.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gabrielgarciadt | Yes | 111.25 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html. A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ebola-new-country-confirmed-before-october-1
| Yes |
| 20 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| Flingflonger | Yes | 5 |
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