Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jul 30, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$46.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jul 30, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 30 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 75.5% on 22 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2025 to 30 Jul 2025, the highest close was 99.6% on 30 Jul 2025 and the lowest 71.5% on 28 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 99.6% on 30 Jul 2025. $46.21K traded over the market's life.

40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 31, 8:43 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 22 Jul 2025 – 30 Jul 2025, chart shows 60%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
22 Jul 2025	75.5%
30 Jul 2025	99.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
rmBigmac	No	405.3
Namlit	No	315.63
PiotrMARW2025	No	200
20130.	No	200

10 of 40 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between July 21, 2:30 PM, and August 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until September 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.