Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 33%. Yes opened at 56% on 19 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2026 to 1 Sep 2026, the highest close was 72.5% on 26 Aug 2026 and the lowest 33% on 1 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 42.5% on 29 Aug 2026. $1.25K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 19 Aug 2026 – 1 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 56.0% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 33.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Admirable-Poem | No | 508.15 |
| arcanecapital | No | 59.99 |
| menthe2 | No | 50 |
| erFiodena | No | 44.44 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Duane Keith Davis has been charged by the State of Nevada with murder, with use of a deadly weapon, for the 1996 death of Tupac Shakur. You can read more about that here: https://abcnews.com/US/suspect-arrested-tupac-murder/story?id=103603653. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Duane Keith Davis is convicted of at least one murder charge in the ongoing State of Nevada v. Duane Keith Davis case by either December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or, in the event of a mistrial, by the end of any retrial that begins before that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, or results in a verdict of Not Guilty for all murder charges (including by reason of lack of criminal responsibility due to mental illness), this market will resolve to "No". A plea agreement will qualify to resolve this market "Yes" only if it results in a judgment of conviction for murder. If all murder charges against Davis are dropped, or otherwise changed such that they are no longer considered murder, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/duane-keith-davis-convicted-of-tupacs-murder
| Squeaky-Ark | No | 6.29 |
| bjprolo | No | 5 |
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