Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 28 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2025 to 1 Mar 2025, the highest close was 21.5% on 28 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 11.5% on 30 Jan 2025. $45.73K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 5:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 28 Jan 2025 – 1 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2025 | 21.5% |
| 1 Mar 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PolyDump | Yes | 199.99 |
| maga9 | Yes | 37.04 |
| juanjuanjuan | No | 35.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model by DeepSeek has a higher arena score than all OpenAI models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by February 28, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best OpenAI arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/deepseek-better-than-all-openai-models-before-march
| Yes |
| 20 |
| GordonBet1st | Yes | 20 |
| davisss1 | Yes | 11.24 |
| CamelRd3r | Yes | 3.85 |
| bigB-176 | No | 1.15 |
| EPunx | No | 0.03 |
| antoshkavlasio | No | 0.02 |
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