Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 2.3% on 4 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 3.5% on 5 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Jan 2026. $81.12K traded over the market's life.
46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 4 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | 2.3% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kandinsky | Yes | 995.74 |
| Bearballs | Yes | 837.36 |
| tomyvgsa | Yes | 728.38 |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Venezuela by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Venezuela. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Venezuela as a state actor. General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Venezuela will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/congress-authorizes-military-force-against-venezuela-by-january-31
| Yes |
| 555 |
| ProbablyPomPom | Yes | 500 |
| tothemoooon9999 | Yes | 471.93 |
| MASEN | Yes | 459.9 |
| Amber Comet 52A0 | Yes | 403.38 |
| cc416 | Yes | 399.97 |
| First-Due | Yes | 333.33 |
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