Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 11% on 24 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 11% on 24 Jun 2025 and the low 0.1% on 1 Aug 2025. $13.6K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 4:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 24 Jun 2025 – 1 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2025 | 11.0% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 272 |
| mgb | Yes | 234.69 |
| pheasant | Yes | 114.77 |
| Mehdipersian | Yes | 103 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor. General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/congress-authorizes-military-force-against-iran-before-august
| Incomplete-Soy | Yes | 85 |
| johnnymacaroni | Yes | 71.43 |
| Eldervoic | Yes | 52.07 |
| rehaxx | Yes | 35.71 |
| goontrading | Yes | 16.67 |
| BreadNova | Yes | 13.25 |
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