Analytics
The South Dakota side is at 74.5%, up 2.5 points from 72% when the market opened on 9 Oct 2026.
Across the 18 daily closes on record from 9 Oct 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88.5% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 51% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close the South Dakota side was at 88.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 82% on 24 Oct 2026.
$4.01K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $964.14, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 43 trades, $519.39 bought South Dakota and $398.32 bought New Mexico.
The largest South Dakota position is 74-75 with 2K shares; the largest New Mexico position is lava-lava with 2.6K.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:42 AM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the South Dakota price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 9 Oct 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | South Dakota price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 72.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 74.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lava-lava | New Mexico | 2.62K |
| 74-75 | South Dakota | 2K |
| KimchiCapital | South Dakota | 512.88 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "South Dakota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in South Dakota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Mexico Senate election. This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Mexico has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the South Dakota Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/closer-senate-race-south-dakota-or-new-mexico
| SiliconBets | New Mexico | 329.26 |
| SitsToPee | South Dakota | 217.88 |
| Dr.PNL | South Dakota | 172.08 |
| buyrightbake | South Dakota | 150 |
| xtxpleasecallme | New Mexico | 123.4 |
| PGD1 | South Dakota | 50 |
| 2B9S | New Mexico | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
