Analytics
The Alaska side is at 25.5%, down 40 points from 65.5% when the market opened on 29 Sep 2026.
The high was 65.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the low 12.5% on 30 Sep 2026. A week ago the Alaska side was at 30%. Its largest one-day move was 53 points down, to 12.5% on 30 Sep 2026.
$1.34K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $385.01, with a 25.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 33 trades, $105.27 bought Alaska and $376.9 bought Texas.
The largest Alaska position is Viserys with 176 shares; the largest Texas position is vinii with 529. Ten wallets hold 90.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 20 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 9:47 PM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Alaska price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
| Observed | Alaska price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 65.5% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Alaska" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Alaska has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Texas Senate election. This market will resolve to "Texas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Texas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Alaska Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/closer-senate-race-alaska-or-texas
| GuyFromTinder |
| Alaska |
| 80 |
| Standard-Jackal | Texas | 41 |
| Polimaki | Alaska | 40 |
| lava-lava | Alaska | 27.29 |
| UpTheStairs | Alaska | 25 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | Alaska | 20 |
| D222222222 | Alaska | 20 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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