Analytics
Yes is at 37.5%, up 13 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 39.5% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 28%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 28% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Clavicular in jail by...?”.
$1.1K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $88.08, with a 39.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 29 trades, $49.01 bought Yes and $223.42 bought No.
The largest Yes position is GuyFromTinder with 80 shares; the largest No position is wasabeej with 80.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 2:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 24.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 37.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 80 |
| wasabeej | No | 80 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 50 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/clavicular-in-jail-by-september-30
| vbm |
| No |
| 40 |
| youtube-trader | No | 25.94 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 22 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 20 |
| AJSV | Yes | 20 |
| lissartter | No | 20 |
| LeChatonFat | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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