- What is the “Claude 4 released in May?” market asking?
- It asks whether the following will happen: Claude 4 released in May? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
- What do the Yes and No prices mean?
- At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
- When does this market close?
- Trading is scheduled to close on May 31, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
- How does this market resolve?
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 4 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 4 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 4 (e.g. Claude 4.0 would count), or one…
- What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
- 24h volume ($46.29K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
- Who holds the biggest positions in this market?
