Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 May 2025.
$46.29K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 24, 12:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 22 May 2025, chart shows 66%–78%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2025 | 71.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| onedollawizard | No | 2.96K |
| sjj | No | 198.09 |
| MoonyT | No | 193.47 |
| JohkuF | No | 62.81 |
| sm0k3 | No | 27 |
| caroline.name | No | 0.02 |
| thepolwinner | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 4 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 4 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 4 (e.g. Claude 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 3, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claude-4-released-in-may
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
