Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 16% on 31 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 337 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 16% on 31 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 30 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6 points up, to 6.5% on 25 Dec 2025. $251.64K traded over the market's life.
106 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 337 points, 31 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | 16.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kalachoooch | Yes | 1.39K |
| UPFLY | Yes | 999.98 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 354 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as use of water cannons, warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-x-philippines-military-clash-by
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 297 |
| dsytfg | Yes | 287.28 |
| amondevil | Yes | 282 |
| galencw | Yes | 223.11 |
| Midas8 | Yes | 211.55 |
| Quinlanl | Yes | 193.77 |
| Damp-Honesty | Yes | 172.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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