Analytics
Resolved Yes on 25 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 87.8%. Yes opened at 95.5% on 4 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 95.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the low 64.3% on 5 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 64.3% on 5 Sep 2026. $1.9K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 26, 1:59 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 25 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 95.5% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 87.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Attached-Prairie | No | 325 |
| jackli003 | No | 200 |
| Slowbucks | No | 40 |
| Azure Signal DA85 | No | 20 |
| flexer78 | No | 20 |
| darkaurora | No | 20 |
| maomao228 | No | 20 |
| bjprolo | No | 8 |
| C320-X | No | 5 |
| egrsafvafvaer | No | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-outage-byptptptpt-20260902
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