Analytics
Yes is at 61%, up 15 points from 46% when the market opened on 2 Jul 2026.
The high was 62.5% on 18 Sep 2026 and the low 36% on 27 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 61%; a month ago, 46.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 62.5% on 18 Sep 2026.
$473.99 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $869.71, with a 40.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is DuneMentat with 120 shares; the largest No position is BennyHop with 114.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 24 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 11, 9:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 102 points · 2 Jul 2026 – 11 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 46.0% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 61.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DuneMentat | Yes | 120 |
| BennyHop | No | 113.89 |
| woreste | No | 60 |
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/california-recall-election-reform-proposition
| GuyFromTinder |
| Yes |
| 20 |
| DancewithRisk | Yes | 20 |
| dropmeplease | No | 20 |
| AJSV | Yes | 16.39 |
| moneymachine4 | Yes | 10 |
| jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq | Yes | 7.5 |
| alexbonu | Yes | 3 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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