Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 29 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 6.9% on 4 Oct 2026 and the low 1% on 5 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.9 points down, to 1% on 5 Oct 2026. $23K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 6, 12:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 5 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 6.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 1.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.02K |
| Baraozin | Yes | 7.7K |
| Ad4mse7en | Yes | 2.59K |
| Lorry2002 | Yes | 916.54 |
| Marcelix | Yes | 884.19 |
| Dead-Psychology | Yes | 558.21 |
| lucasrh080 | Yes | 434.49 |
| zetbetter | Yes | 332.82 |
| Farofa26 | Yes | 291.31 |
| klxjk | Yes | 269.27 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-flavio-bolsonaro-vote-share-higher-strikes
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
