Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 17 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2026 to 5 Oct 2026, the highest close was 21.5% on 17 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 9% on 18 Sep 2026. $5.46K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 17 Sep 2026 – 5 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | 21.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.29K |
| balthazar | Yes | 660 |
| notthel | Yes | 221.17 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-augusto-cury-vote-share
| Yes |
| 169.01 |
| Severe-March | Yes | 60.11 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 59 |
| gonzinho | Yes | 52.03 |
| a5533 | Yes | 40 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30.09 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
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