Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$95.8K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Topic roomBitcoin Price

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 92.5%. Yes opened at 56.5% on 19 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 45 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 92.5% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 19.5% on 21 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 60% on 28 Dec 2025. $95.79K traded over the market's life.

123 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 19 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Nov 2025	56.5%
1 Jan 2026	92.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Krejza68	No	2.29K
kraftto	No	945.21
aARSNT	No	591.5

10 of 123 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms the S&P 500 (SPX) in December 2025, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 31, 2025 11:59 PM in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 1, 2025 12:00 AM in the ET timezone. The percentage change in the S&P 500 (SPX) will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day in December to the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day in November, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution sources for this market are Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar, and the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices" (US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks, EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea, ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia).