Analytics
Yes is at 22.5%, about where the market opened on 25 Oct 2025.
Across the 354 daily closes on record from 25 Oct 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61% on 10 Jan 2026 and the lowest 18% on 18 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 21.5%; a month before, 28%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 18.5% on 16 Jun 2026.
$18.96K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.25M since listing. The order book holds $111.84K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $8.85K bought Yes and $201.72K bought No; the largest was a $182.5K buy of No at 77.0¢.
The largest Yes position is forcestrut1 with 374.1K shares; the largest No position is Euan with 237K. Ten wallets hold 68.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 354 points, 25 Oct 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2025 | 22.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 22.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| forcestrut1 | Yes | 374.1K |
| drop126 | Yes | 365.6K |
| Euan | No | 237.01K |
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026
| wan123 |
| No |
| 140.63K |
| truefish31 | Yes | 101.87K |
| 99problems123 | No | 56.88K |
| jaja5050 | No | 43.07K |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | No | 38.73K |
| cambridgeisaac | No | 35.49K |
| ABC123ABC | Yes | 30.35K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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