Analytics
Yes is at 1.1%, down 14 points from 15% when the market opened on 24 Oct 2026.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026, the highest close was 15% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 25 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 1.1% on 25 Oct 2026.
Under 5.3 ranks second of the 6 outcomes in “What will the biggest earthquake be on October 24, 2026?”. 6.1 or more leads at 99.6%; 5.3 to 5.4 is at 0.3%.
$114.19 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $644.59 since listing. The order book holds $1.21K, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is LonelyScissors with 175 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 413. Ten wallets hold 84.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 25 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 4:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 24 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | 15.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 1.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 413 |
| LonelyScissors | Yes | 174.99 |
| johnpudricion | No | 104.19 |
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 24, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 24, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 25, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 24, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 25, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-10-24
| LovelyPanda | Yes | 100 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 60 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| richyee | Yes | 50 |
| ergodiclab | No | 50 |
| nefariouskermit | Yes | 40.02 |
| to-the-moooon | No | 36.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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