Analytics
Yes is at 2.1% on Polymarket.
Under 5.3 ranks fifth of the 6 outcomes in “What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026?”. 5.7 to 5.8 leads at 78.5%; 6.1 or more is at 13%.
$1.5K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.22K since listing. The order book holds $383, with a 4.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 65 trades, $100.48 bought Yes and $798.89 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Ivory Tide 2FA2 with 98 shares; the largest No position is Flexquake1 with 144. Ten wallets hold 76.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 24 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 3:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Flexquake1 | No | 143.63 |
| Ivory Tide 2FA2 | Yes | 98.49 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 68.4 |
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 23, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 23, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 23, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-10-23
| LovelyPanda | Yes | 57.13 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 43.7 |
| Ainocry. | Yes | 40 |
| haouibao | Yes | 40 |
| erdos-baconator | No | 31 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 25.87 |
| helicobite | No | 22.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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