Analytics
Yes is at 23.5%, down 1 point from 24.5% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the highest close was 24.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 23.5% on 23 Oct 2026.
6.1 or more is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026?”, ahead of 5.5 to 5.6 at 17%.
$256.57 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $276.57 since listing. The order book holds $855.32, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 23 trades, $12.28 bought Yes and $130.79 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Ivory Tide 2FA2 with 97 shares; the largest No position is buyat89 with 50.
Trading closes on 24 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 1:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 15%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 24.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 23.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ivory Tide 2FA2 | Yes | 96.85 |
| buyat89 | No | 50 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 48.4 |
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 23, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 23, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 23, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-10-23
| bubububblebutt |
| No |
| 24.81 |
| helicobite | Yes | 20 |
| truwhai2 | No | 20 |
| ergodiclab | Yes | 19.65 |
| szy10010 | Yes | 10 |
| Noxious-Auditorium | No | 2.05 |
| 0xSPBB | No | 1.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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