Analytics
Yes is at 2.2%, down 84 points from 86% when the market opened on 23 Apr 2026.
Across the 182 daily closes on record from 23 Apr 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86% on 23 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.3% on 22 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.6%; a month before, 3.6%. Its largest one-day move was 52 points down, to 33.5% on 24 Apr 2026.
$52.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $763.56, with a 1.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 499 trades, $1.21K bought Yes and $6.6K bought No; the largest was a $3.34K sell of No at 95.5¢.
The largest Yes position is PSANIX with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Proud-Illusion with 2.3K. Ten wallets hold 81.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 2:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 182 points, 23 Apr 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | 86.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 2.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Proud-Illusion | No | 2.33K |
| Unequaled-Charset | No | 1.87K |
| PSANIX | Yes | 1.11K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ben Pasternak serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ben-pasternak-in-jail
| Putrid-Imbalance |
| Yes |
| 629.44 |
| Keen Falcon D40C | Yes | 546.86 |
| GrokEnjoyer | Yes | 437.96 |
| APaintnobroke | No | 300 |
| Perypery | Yes | 249.72 |
| Pre-rich-dude | Yes | 200 |
| Bright Oracle 12E7 | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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