Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, down 13 points from 28% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
The high was 44% on 16 Oct 2026 and the low 14.5% on 2 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 22%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 15.5% on 22 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “AWS service disrupted by...?”.
$323.87 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.22K since listing. The order book holds $15.35, with a 23.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 66 trades, $161.89 bought Yes and $285.98 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 208 shares; the largest No position is cigarettes with 95.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 7:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 28.0% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AJSV | Yes | 208.12 |
| cigarettes | No | 95.28 |
| Carabao | No | 60 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/aws-service-disrupted-by-june-30
| 2B9S |
| Yes |
| 40 |
| richardd | No | 39.98 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 30.13 |
| Haradwaith | No | 20 |
| edge999 | No | 9 |
| Hazel1122 | Yes | 6.56 |
| PerformSleepState | No | 0.26 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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