Analytics
Yes is at 36%, up 6 points from 30% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 21 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 77.5% on 9 Oct 2026 and the lowest 29.5% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 49.5%. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 29.5% on 5 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “AWS service disrupted by...?”.
$40 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.28K since listing. The order book holds $113.63, with a 36.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 124 trades, $569.76 bought Yes and $709.62 bought No.
The largest Yes position is cigarettes with 90 shares; the largest No position is AJSV with 234.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 40 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 12:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 30.0% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 36.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AJSV | No | 233.82 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 90 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 45.2 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/aws-service-disrupted-by-june-30
| BreaktheChain |
| Yes |
| 38.52 |
| evelynfoster | Yes | 35.85 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 31.64 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 28.41 |
| black4562 | No | 20.3 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 20 |
| Scoopdewhoop | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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