Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 3 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 365 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 36.5% on 30 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 36.5% on 30 Jan 2025. $61.48K traded over the market's life.
67 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 365 points, 3 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2025 | 18.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 1.45K |
| JonnyWuhanny | Yes | 833.33 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 300 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Russia for any length of time between January 2, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Assad may have exited Russian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Russia for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Assad exits Russia maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Russia, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/assad-leaves-russia-before-2026
| Dismal-Chalice | Yes | 283.67 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 238.19 |
| 33Vvvv | Yes | 234.08 |
| eduGuess | Yes | 181.82 |
| Vilandarion | Yes | 169.05 |
| Rothschild | Yes | 161.1 |
| 🐥🥚🐣 | Yes | 119.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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