Analytics
Yes is at 5.3%, down 45 points from 50% when the market opened on 13 May 2026.
Across the 164 daily closes on record from 13 May 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 13 May 2026 and the lowest 3.9% on 7 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 4.2%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 14.5% on 14 May 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Arc FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$629.34 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.39K, with a 1.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is cripes3 with 33 shares; the largest No position is Both-Adult with 11.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 7:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 164 points, 13 May 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cripes3 | Yes | 32.76 |
| Both-Adult | No | 11.2 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 11.1 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arc-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| TheOne777 |
| No |
| 10.8 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 10.75 |
| sludgelife | No | 10.5 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 1.05 |
| sachin5868 | No | 1.04 |
| Mojito9 | No | 0.6 |
| nani | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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