Analytics
Yes is at 67%, up 17 points from 50.5% when the market opened on 13 May 2026.
Across the 163 daily closes on record from 13 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89% on 29 May 2026 and the lowest 45% on 21 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 68%; a month before, 61.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 83% on 14 May 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Arc FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$342.33 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $16.06K since listing. The order book holds $1K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 275 trades, $3.73K bought Yes and $1.51K bought No; the largest was a $1.88K buy of Yes at 75.1¢.
The largest Yes position is rekt-prediction with 2.5K shares; the largest No position is maxdawg with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 87.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 163 points, 13 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | 50.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 67.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rekt-prediction | Yes | 2.5K |
| maxdawg | No | 1.88K |
| Fire13 | No | 1.36K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arc-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| Anjun |
| No |
| 719.18 |
| MaxEnt | Yes | 500 |
| jason6666 | Yes | 270.87 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 228.15 |
| hitjnn214 | Yes | 215.68 |
| VibeyQuant | Yes | 168.18 |
| magicdogs | Yes | 154.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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