Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 91.3%. Yes opened at 94.5% on 21 Mar 2025. Before it settled, the high was 96.9% on 4 May 2025 and the low 67.5% on 19 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 82.9% on 27 Jun 2025. $397.66K traded over the market's life.
104 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 15, 4:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 147 points · 21 Mar 2025 – 14 Aug 2025 · axis zoomed to 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2025 | 94.5% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | 91.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| WongKimArk | No | 22.6K |
| hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe | No | 4.85K |
| Steponme | No | 4.24K |
Recently, there have been a spate of arson attacks on Teslas and Tesla facilities. You can read more about that here: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/video/investigation-underway-apparent-tesla-arson-attacks-119962366 This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one person is found guilty of arson involving a Tesla facility or property, or any vehicle owned or produced by Tesla, between March 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered a relevant case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered a the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/any-tesla-arsonist-found-guilty-in-2025
| No |
| 3.93K |
| lollybet | No | 3.44K |
| Anjun | No | 2.52K |
| Monomachos | No | 1.9K |
| ciro2 | No | 1.52K |
| Monocular | No | 1.4K |
| Molodyets | No | 1K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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