
Yes is at 25%, up 13 points from 12% when the market opened on 16 Sep 2026.
The high was 54.5% on 27 Sep 2026 and the low 12% on 16 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 48.5%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 54.5% on 27 Sep 2026.
Anthropic is the favourite of the 14 outcomes in “Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?”, ahead of Meta at 21.6%.
$124.99 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $20.5, with a 42.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 38 shares; the largest No position is browne with 70.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 26 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 7, 2:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 23 points · 16 Sep 2026 – 7 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 12.0% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 25.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| browne | No | 70 |
| AJSV | Yes | 38.34 |
| Standard-Jackal | Yes | 29.82 |
On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-ai-labs-announce-a-training-pause-by-october-31
2 more outcomes, none above 1.6%.
| ferraracesare |
| Yes |
| 5 |
| UpTheStairs | No | 3.15 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page