
Resolved No on 10 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 10% on 4 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2026 to 10 Jan 2026, the highest close was 10% on 4 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.1 points down, to 2.9% on 5 Jan 2026. $548.38K traded over the market's life.
72 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 11, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 4 Jan 2026 – 10 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | 10.0% |
| 10 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| evansbarbara | Yes | 6.78K |
| lmjjoiyyur586 | Yes | 4.3K |
| kandinsky | Yes | 2.8K |
| camshotsr | Yes | 2.65K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil on the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place. Statements within this time period from Trump claiming a qualifying strike will qualify, regardless of whether officially confirmed by the U.S. government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-strike-on-venezuela-on
| aurelius | Yes | 1.63K |
| Feminine-Cymbal | Yes | 1K |
| GGBCHUO | Yes | 1K |
| cyfra | Yes | 1K |
| Lagbo | Yes | 1K |
| Player2088 | Yes | 400 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page