Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 31, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$19.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 31, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 31 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 87.8%. Yes opened at 96% on 27 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 27 Mar 2026 to 28 Mar 2026, the highest close was 96% on 27 Mar 2026 and the lowest 87.8% on 28 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.3 points down, to 87.8% on 28 Mar 2026. $19.75K traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 9:10 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 27 Mar 2026 – 28 Mar 2026, chart shows 85%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
27 Mar 2026	96.0%
28 Mar 2026	87.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
yangguang0511	No	4K
TENETENET	No	500
ddddfwe	No	379
elmana	No	74.13

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.