Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 29 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 29 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 17.5% on 29 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 17% on 2 Dec 2025. $140.18K traded over the market's life.
56 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 29 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2025 | 17.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| trubaduro | No | 1.67K |
| gambler88 | Yes | 1.07K |
| gornostai | Yes | 808.67 |
| Rural-Handsaw | Yes | 590.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrii Yermak is arrested or detained by law enforcement by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/andrii-yermak-arrested-by-november-30
| kirilxd | Yes | 412 |
| MTT75017 | Yes | 400 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 337 |
| ArthurGreen | Yes | 250 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 217.95 |
| Newshound | Yes | 200 |
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