Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, down 23 points from 38.5% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 31 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the highest close was 70.5% on 5 Oct 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 25.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 24% on 12 Oct 2026.
$100 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.93K since listing. The order book holds $350.08, with a 9.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 115 trades, $387.92 bought Yes and $738.1 bought No.
The largest Yes position is nellojello with 326 shares; the largest No position is Started-with-20-USD with 271. Ten wallets hold 92% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 39 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 5:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 38.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| nellojello | Yes | 326 |
| Started-with-20-USD | No | 270.56 |
| Pityok1 | No | 200.46 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year. A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution. Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/all-time-pacific-category-5-hurricane-record-broken-in-2026
| rabbit007 |
| No |
| 147 |
| AJSV | Yes | 146.26 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 53.7 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 49.5 |
| boempie | Yes | 27.41 |
| typhoontrader | Yes | 22.73 |
| preciseploys | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
