Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5.1% on 3 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 245 daily closes on record from 3 May 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 6.3% on 6 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. $91.14K traded over the market's life.
78 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 245 points, 3 May 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | 5.1% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
his market will resolve to "Yes" if the political party Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) is banned at the federal level in Germany by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Partial bans at the state level or restrictions short of a full federal ban will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/afd-banned-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| BabyYoda12 | Yes | 332.62 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 294.61 |
| nothingeverhappens61 | No | 282.38 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 281 |
| wejay | Yes | 270.27 |
| gesh | Yes | 204.85 |
| RepublicOfChina | Yes | 177.88 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
