Analytics
Yes is at 4.3%, down 9.3 points from 13.5% when the market opened on 25 Sep 2026.
Across the 32 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13.5% on 25 Sep 2026 and the lowest 3.2% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.1%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 8% on 26 Sep 2026.
$19.42 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $13.11K since listing. The order book holds $10.64K, with a 3.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 28 trades, $43.84 bought Yes and $5.79K bought No; the largest was a $5.4K buy of No at 90.0¢.
The largest Yes position is LinaBell with 451 shares; the largest No position is pagliacci4 with 280.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 6:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 13.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LinaBell | Yes | 450.61 |
| pagliacci4 | No | 280.38 |
| Golden Signal D11F | No | 108.1 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abiy Ahmed ceases to be Prime Minister of Ethiopia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Abiy Ahmed's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Abiy Ahmed and the government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/abiy-ahmed-out-as-prime-minister-of-ethiopia-in-2026
| archaic |
| No |
| 91.42 |
| EconProf | No | 44.94 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 42 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 36.87 |
| erFiodena | No | 22.72 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 20.1 |
| vesvegaa | No | 10.81 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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