Analytics
Yes is at 3.9%, down 9.7 points from 13.5% when the market opened on 9 Dec 2025.
Across the 315 daily closes on record from 9 Dec 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14.5% on 29 Mar 2026 and the lowest 2.8% on 17 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.9%; a month before, 3%. Its largest one-day move was 5.9 points down, to 5.9% on 10 Jul 2026.
$332.75K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $31.51K, with a 1.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $8.56K bought Yes and $17.47K bought No; the largest was a $16.36K sell of No at 60.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Royal Oracle 34B5 with 13.6K shares; the largest No position is DEGENKHAN with 7.5K. Ten wallets hold 44.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 100 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 315 points, 9 Dec 2025 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Dec 2025 | 13.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 3.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Royal Oracle 34B5 | Yes | 13.64K |
| DEGENKHAN | No | 7.47K |
| 589985 | Yes | 5K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/9pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027
| DegenerateJanet |
| No |
| 4.27K |
| UnderwriterGCR | No | 3.76K |
| gopfan2 | No | 3.63K |
| xtyche | Yes | 3.26K |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | No | 2.84K |
| thebetter1234 | No | 2.77K |
| PontiusPilate | No | 2.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
