Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 29% on 3 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 122 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 86.5% on 29 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 40 points up, to 76% on 25 Oct 2025. $37.87K traded over the market's life.
54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 3, 12:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 122 points, 3 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2025 | 29.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SkillzThatKillz | Yes | 500 |
| littlepo | Yes | 395.64 |
| bfda3r | Yes | 339.99 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between September 2 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable, other credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/30-year-mortgage-rate-below-6-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 321 |
| addict | Yes | 300 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 201 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 171 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 159 |
| Formal-Jackal | Yes | 150 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 120 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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