2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?

Resolved

Yes, settled Feb 18, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$22.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Feb 18, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 18 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 74.5% on 6 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 76 daily closes on record from 6 Dec 2025 to 18 Feb 2026, the highest close was 100% on 18 Feb 2026 and the lowest 21.5% on 19 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 100% on 18 Feb 2026. $22.74K traded over the market's life.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 10:54 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 6 Dec 2025 – 18 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
6 Dec 2025	74.5%
18 Feb 2026	100.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
MasonsConqueredRome	No	840
Bold Scout BD7E	No	438
Emerald Pioneer D14A	No	297

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on XXX or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.